Today :

 

PRICE ARE NOW FOR 2015 HARVEST

Euro /dollar: 1.1

CRB index: 177.5599 points

Crude oil: 37.42 $/barrel

     Training : Futures markets and options : New ! The 14/15 of January 2016 in Paris(in English)

Paris: Preopening

Wheat:  unchanged
Corn:  unchanged
Rapeseed: unchanged

Chicago: Preopening

Wheat:   - 1 cents
Corn:   + 1 cents
Soybean:  unchanged

European Market

Two significant elements yesterday, the USDA’s report and the rebound of the euro.

USDA’s report, did not bring major change, only the slight increase of wheat world report stock for June 2016 with 229.9 Mt and for Europe with 18.95 Mt. For corn and soybean, figures were roughly inside traders’ expectations.

The strength of the euro is hampering our competitiveness on the international stage.The single currency is beginning the morning’s session at 1.10 vs dollar, still in the wave of last ECB’s meeting and despite of likely increase of 0.25 bp by the Fed, planned for the 16^th of December.

FranceAgrimer revised up its estimate of French ending stocks for barley and corn to respectively 2.2 and 2.8 Mt vs 2 and 2.3 Mt shown one month ago. For wheat, situation is unchanged with ending stocks still planned at 5.2 Mt.

On the international stage, we can note the purchase of 50 000 t of barley by Jordan and a wheat tender from Algeria last night, with probably a large part of French wheat.

Rapeseed prices were in decline, in reaction to low level of crude oil.

 

 

 

Wheat, harvest 2015, quotes at 164 €/t  on a July basis for a quality 76/220/11, delivery Rouen.

Chicago wheat trades to an equivalent of  164.50 €/t  for December 2015 delivery.

Durum wheat, harvest 2015, trades between 270 €/t nominal delivered Port La Nouvelle.

Rapeseed, harvest 2015, quotes at 381 €/t nominal FOB Moselle, November 2015 delivery.

Feed barley, harvest 2015, quotes at 156 €/t  July basis for standard quality, delivery Rouen.

Malting barley, Sebastian variety, harvest 2015, quotes at 181 €/t July basis, FOB Creil.

Sunflower, harvest 2015, quotes at 415 €/t nominal, October delivery, equivalent Saint-Nazaire.

Corn, 2014 harvest, trades at 160 €/t on a July 2015 basis, FOB Bordeaux

The feeding pea market trades at 210 €/t nominal, August 2015 basis, FOB Creil

 

 

American Market

Yesterday, wheat prices slightly rebounded in Chicago. However USDA’s report displayed very little change.This is mainly due to funds short positions at a high level, this should push them to buy back before the end of year.

Yesterday funds were net sellers of 4 000 of wheat. They were neutral for corn and soybean.

USDA’s report highlighted a little increase on Argentina’s soybean exports ahead of MrMacri’s takeover and unchanged China’s imports estimated at 80.5 Mt.

Prices provided below are now for the 2015 harvest.

 

Corn December 2015, closed at 3.7375 $/bushel, + 2.25 cents from previous day.

Wheat December 2015, closed at 4.8975 $/bushel, + 8.25 cents from previous day.

Soybean November 2015 closed at 8.7975 $/bushel  unchanged  from previous day.

Soy meal December 2015, closed at 278.50 $/t, +1.30 $/t from previous day.

Soy oil December 2015, closed at 31.11 cents/lb, - 0.38 cents from previous day.

 

 

Black Sea market

The recent crude oil’s price decline,pusheddown the Russian currency. This week, the rublehave tested a level of 70 ruble for 1 dollar. Despite of wheat’s prices decline in FOB-ports basis at 194-195 USD/t, the export tax threshold isreached.

With a RUR/USD parity of 69/ 1, the tax in current conditions should be:

Tax= (194.5*69/2)-6500 = 210 RUR so 3 USD

In this context, Russian exporters could hold low prices to avoid the payment of this tax. Only a significant worldwide price rebound or new ruble devaluation would change the exporter’s behavior.

 

Have a good day

AGRITEL

	Pour toute information, contactez-nous au 01 53 05 96 70 ou contact@agritel.fr
	Feel free to contact us at +33 1 53 05 96 70 or contact@agritel.fr
	Для получения более детальной информации звоните по телефону +38 044 278 60 65 или пишите на agritelint@agritel.com
	Para cualquier información sobre las actividades de Agritel, contacte con nosotros en el +33 1 83 64 23 61 o por email: contact@agritel.com
	如需了解更多信息，请随时联系我们。 电话：+33 1 53 05 96 70 电子邮箱：contact@agritel.com
	Per ulteriori informazioni, contattateci al +33 1 53 05 96 70 o contact@agritel.com

 

 

Agritel is a society dealing with price risk management for agricultural commodities.
www.agritel.fr
Copyright